One Straw

It’s the Economy stupid…

ngodirect — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 14:22:39 +0000

Hey Homeowners, Bush Blames You — Not Iraq — for Our Tanking Economy

By Tom Engelhardt and Frida Berrigan, Tomdispatch.com. Posted February 29, 2008.

Five years into Iraq, Bush denies any link between Americans’ economic pain and war spending.

In the week that oil prices once again crested above $100 a barrel and more Americans than at any time since the Great Depression owed more on their homes than the homes were worth; in the year that the subprime market crashed, global markets shuddered, the previously unnoticed credit-default swap market threatened to go into the tank, stagflation returned, unemployment rose, the “R” word (for recession) hit the headlines (while the “D” word lurked), within weeks of the fifth anniversary of his invasion of Iraq, the President of the United States officially discovered the war economy.

George W. Bush and Laura Bush were being interviewed by NBC’s Ann Curry when the subject turned to the war in Iraq. Curry reminded the President that his wife had once said, “No one suffers more than their president. I hope they know the burden of worry that’s on his shoulders every single day for our troops.” The conversation continued thusly:

“Bush: And as people are now beginning to see, Iraq is changing, democracy is beginning to tak[e] hold. And I’m convinced 50 years from now people look back and say thank God there was those who were willing to sacrifice.“Curry: But you’re saying you’re going to have to carry that burden … Some Americans believe that they feel they’re carrying the burden because of this economy.

“Bush: Yeah, well –

“Curry: They say — they say they’re suffering because of this.

“Bush: I don’t agree with that.

“Curry: You don’t agree with that? Has nothing do with the economy, the war? The spending on the war?

“Bush: I don’t think so. I think actually, the spending on the war might help with jobs.

“Curry: Oh, yeah?

“Bush: Yeah, because we’re buying equipment, and people are working. I think this economy is down because we built too many houses.”

In other words, in honor of the soon-to-arrive fifth anniversary of his war without end, the President has offered a formula for economic success in bad times that might be summed up this way: less houses, more bases, more weaponry, more war. This, of course, comes from the man who, between 2001 and today, presided over an official Pentagon budget that leapt by more than 60% from $316 billion to $507 billion, and by more than 30% since Iraq was invaded. Looked at another way, between 2001 and the latest emergency supplemental request to pay for his wars (first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq), supplemental funding for war-fighting has jumped from $17 billion to $189 billion, an increase of 1,011%. At the same time, almost miraculously, the U.S. armed forces have been driven to the edge of the military equivalent of default.

It’s clear that as a “war president” our Commander-in-Chef has really whipped up a storm in the White House kitchen between the moment he launched his invasion on March 19, 2003 and the present. Think of it as a tale of two recipes:

George Bush’s Commander-in-Chef Mission Accomplished Baghdad Victory StewIngredients:

3 tablespoons, Iraqi extra virgin oil [no olives]

A “sea” of crude oil (and the necessary no-bid contracts to protect it)

Misinformation and disinformation (including Iraqi mushroom [clouds] and 9/11 Saddam [pork] links)

Shock ‘n awe-tichoke cruise missiles and B-1 bombers (in quantity)

130,000 American troops (Army Chief of Staff Gen. Eric Shinseki suggested that, for this victory stew, “several hundred thousand” American troops were needed, but he was hustled out of the kitchen.)

1 head of Saddam Hussein

Spices:

1 bunch, coalition of the dilling, finely chopped

1 cup, Congressional authorization for war

2 sprigs of Iraqi exiles

Embedded reporters (to taste)

Dough for accompanying Iraqi flatbread, $50-60 million worth (Top Bush economic advisor Larry Lindsey suggested that $200 billion might be a more reasonable figure, but he, too, was promptly ousted from the kitchen.)

Flower petals (edible and in season)

To prepare:

In a heavy casserole, heat extra virgin Iraqi oil over a medium flame.

Add disinformation (mushrooms and links) and sauté until brown; repeat process. (You cannot repeat too many times.)

Add sprigs of Iraqi exiles.

Pour in cup of Congressional authorization for war. Stir vigorously as this tends to evaporate.

Pour in sea of crude oil. Raise heat to high. Quickly add shock ‘n awe-tichoke cruise missiles and B-1 bombers. Cover tightly and bring to a boil. (If this “decapitation” cooking process works and you suddenly find yourself with the head of Saddam Hussein, add it as well.)

Stir in 130,000 American troops. Grind in embedded reporters (to taste). Add chopped coalition of the dilling. Bring back to a boil.

Cover, lower the heat, and simmer, stirring periodically, for three weeks.

Remove to a platter. Serve piping hot, otherwise “stuff happens.” If possible, hire Shiite waiters to strew edible flower petals atop the victory stew at the table for dramatic effect.

In fact, we know who sat down to that “table” in the years after 2003 to eat more than their fill. It was, of course, a cast of characters from the war economy.

The Feasters (a non-inclusive list):

Kellogg, Brown & Root (KBR): Until April 2007 a subsidiary of Halliburton, KBR garnered $20.1 billion in Iraq contracts from the Bush administration. The company reported a $2.3 billion profit in 2006. According to a Center for Public Integrity investigation, KBR was the single biggest corporate winner from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In terms of the dollar value of its Iraq contracts, it received nine times as much as the second largest Iraq contractor, DynCorp.

Halliburton: In 2002, Halliburton was number 37 on the Pentagon’s list of top 100 contractors with $500 million in contracts. By 2006, it was number six, with $6.1 billion in contracts, an increase of more than 1,000%.

Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Peter W. Singer puts this in context, noting in a September 2007 policy paper that “the amount paid to Halliburton-KBR for just that period is roughly three times what the U.S. government paid to fight the entire 1991 Persian Gulf War. When putting other wars into current dollar amounts, the U.S. government paid Halliburton about $7 billion more than it cost the United States to fight the American Revolution, the War of 1812, the Mexican-American War, and the Spanish American War combined.”

Bechtel: In all, Bechtel was granted about $3 billion in contracts for work in Iraq between 2003 and 2007. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, some of its projects included: $1.075 billion for repairs to power stations and the electrical grid; $210 million for water and sanitation projects; $109 million for surface transportation repairs, including roads and railways; and $90 million for repairing or replacing buildings. The company ran afoul of investigators for not finishing many of the jobs it started. Stuart Bowen, the U.S. special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, issued a report in 2006 that repeatedly cited Bechtel mismanagement, including for the construction of the Basra Children’s Hospital, a project that was supposed to be completed by December 2005 at a cost of $50 million. By July 2007, costs had soared to between $90 million and $131 million. The company was dropped from the project which to this day remains uncompleted.

Blackwater: According to investigative journalist Jeremy Scahill, Blackwater, the notorious private security company, has won about $1 billion in State Department contracts.

Lockheed Martin: This company is the largest recipient of Pentagon contracts. It received $26.6 billion in contracts from the Pentagon in 2006, a 36% increase over 2005. Since 2003, when the war against Iraq began, the company has seen its Pentagon contracts jump 20% or nearly $5 billion. Lockheed Martin’s slogan, “we never forget who we’re working for,” clearly refers to the Pentagon, the company’s best customer by a long shot. According to the Orlando Business Journal, “Lockheed Martin Corp. reported profits up 9.6 percent last quarter… The Bethesda-based defense contractor posted fourth-quarter [2007] net income of $799 million, or $1.89 per share, compared with $729 million, or $1.68 per share in the same quarter a year ago… Sales rose in every category of Lockheed’s business except its aeronautics division.”

Boeing: In 2003, the number two recipient of Pentagon contracts received $17.3 billion worth of them. By 2006, the Pentagon had upped that figure to $20.3 billion. According to the Chicago Tribune, “Boeing’s net income rose a better-than-expected 4 percent, to $1.03 billion, or $1.36 per share” in the fourth quarter of 2007. The paper went on to note that the company “expects to build on its strong results from 2007, when its net income jumped 84 percent…to $4.07 billion… on sales of $66.39 billion.”

Northrop Grumman: The third largest recipient of Pentagon contracts recorded a net profit of $454 million for the last quarter of 2007, according to Reuters. In 2003, the company took in $11.1 billion in Pentagon contracts. Three years later, that figure had jumped nearly 50% to $16.6 billion.

General Dynamics: According to analysts, because the work of General Dynamics is concentrated on Army systems, it has reaped the most direct benefits of all the large weapons makers from the Iraq war. “The combat-systems business… it’s a cash cow for them, it’s a solid business,” said Eric Hugel, an industry analyst for Stephens Inc. The New York Times reported that fourth-quarter 2007 earnings for General Dynamics were up 42%. “For all of 2007, General Dynamics had net earnings of $2.1 billion,” up 11% from $1.86 billion in 2006.

The Oil Majors: The oil majors have not actually entered Iraq (yet) in any significant way, but they have profited enormously from the havoc the Iraq War has unleashed in the Middle East as well as from the fact that, in these years, less Iraqi oil has been heading to market than in the worst years of the Saddam Hussein era. The Washington Post reported, for instance, that Exxon Mobil set new records for quarterly and annual corporate profits in 2007, breaking its own 2006 record by making $40.6 billion. Chevron was next in line with an almost 30% increase in profits from 2006 to 2007. The Post went on to note that profits from the five biggest international oil companies have tripled since 2002.

Parsons: This Pasadena-based engineering and construction company has been awarded more than $5 billion in contracts to rebuild the country’s health care and security facilities as well as its water and sewage systems. With Worley Group of Australia, Parsons has also received $800 million in contracts to restore Iraq’s northern oil infrastructure. In negotiating its Iraq reconstruction contracts, Parsons built in an additional bonus of up to 12% for good performance. Fortunately for taxpayers, good performance has been in short supply. Awarded a $75 million contract to build a police academy, Parsons typically cut corners. In the “completed” project, the bathrooms leaked waste water into student barracks to such an extent that one room was dubbed “the rainforest.” The Pentagon terminated one contract when an audit found that, after two years’ work, only six of the 142 health clinics Parsons had signed on to build were completed.

All in all, the Commander-in-Chef whipped up quite a meal back in 2003. As late as March 2006, he was still trying to serve a version of it at a “strategy for victory” event (though he was no longer accompanying it with a desert of Cakewalk Ice Cream Cake).

Finally, on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the invasion, the war economy seems to have had its fill. Now, the rest of us are being seated at a table with an oil-stained tablecloth, uncleared places, dirty dishes, used silverware, and bones strewn everywhere. Of course, it’s for a multi-trillion dollar meal and, for us, it’s a pay-as-you-go affair. (Bring your home mortgage papers with you.) Oh, and when you get your bill, note that the tip, a 150% gratuity, is already included. (Another thing, skip the ice water in those dirty glasses. Cholera is passing around Baghdad right now.) This time, however, the President is offering us a new dish, a special anniversary recipe:

George W. Bush’s Commander-in-Chef Losing Mulligatawny SoupIngredients:

At least 140,000 American troops

Tens of thousands of private security contractors

Nearly 4,000 dead Americans

Tens of thousands of wounded Americans

From several hundred thousand to a million or more dead Iraqis

4.5 million Iraqi refugees or internally displaced persons

4 million hungry Iraqis

Assorted Shiite militias and death squads

Assorted Kurdish militias

80,000 U.S.-armed Sunni “concerned citizens” (militias)

At least 24,000 Iraqi prisoners in American jails

Thousands of Sunni insurgents.

Hundreds (or thousands) of Al-Qaeda-in-Mesopotamia militants

Hundreds of foreign jihadis and suicide bombers.

Up to 10,000 Turkish troops.

Numerous Iranian agents

Crude oil (where available)

Water (polluted)

Hundreds of IEDs (roadside bombs)

361 U.S. Army unmanned drones operating in Iraqi airspace

Hundreds of thousands of pounds of explosives released by U.S. Air Force planes

Dough for accompanying Iraqi flatbread, now possibly $3 trillion — and rising.

To prepare:

Heat whatever crude oil is available in the largest kettle you can find until smoking. Dump in all ingredients in whatever quantities in any order you choose. (Warning: popping oil, shield eyes.) Add polluted water. Bring to a roiling boil at highest heat. Cook for as much — or as little — time as you want. Pour the soup, boiling hot, across the table (no need for bowls) and dig in.

Bon appétit! Happy anniversary!

And keep in mind, for the next 11 months our Iron (Commander-in-) Chef will still be in the kitchen cookin’ up a storm and undoubtedly hummin’ to himself:

“War! — huh — yeah –
What is it good for?Absolutely nothingUh-huh.”

See more stories tagged with: bush, iraq, disaster

Tom Engelhardt, editor of Tomdispatch.com, is co-founder of the American Empire Project and author of The End of Victory Culture. Frida Berrigan is Senior Program Associate with the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation. She is a columnist for Foreign Policy in Focus and a contributing editor at In These Times magazine.

The three trillion war in Iraq and the declining Dollar. In a global economy; How the world pays for it.

ngodirect — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 09:57:56 +0000

The Three Trillion Dollar War

By Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes, The Times of London UK. Posted February 25, 2008.

The cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts have grown to staggering proportions. The Bush Administration was wrong about the benefits of the war and it was wrong about the costs of the war. The president and his advisers expected a quick, inexpensive conflict. Instead, we have a war that is costing more than anyone could have imagined.

The cost of direct US military operations — not even including long-term costs such as taking care of wounded veterans — already exceeds the cost of the 12-year war in Vietnam and is more than double the cost of the Korean War.

And, even in the best case scenario, these costs are projected to be almost ten times the cost of the first Gulf War, almost a third more than the cost of the Vietnam War, and twice that of the First World War. The only war in our history which cost more was the Second World War, when 16.3 million U.S. troops fought in a campaign lasting four years, at a total cost (in 2007 dollars, after adjusting for inflation) of about $5 trillion. With virtually the entire armed forces committed to fighting the Germans and Japanese, the cost per troop (in today’s dollars) was less than $100,000 in 2007 dollars. By contrast, the Iraq war is costing upward of $400,000 per troop.

Most Americans have yet to feel these costs. The price in blood has been paid by our voluntary military and by hired contractors. The price in treasure has, in a sense, been financed entirely by borrowing. Taxes have not been raised to pay for it — in fact, taxes on the rich have actually fallen. Deficit spending gives the illusion that the laws of economics can be repealed, that we can have both guns and butter. But of course the laws are not repealed. The costs of the war are real even if they have been deferred, possibly to another generation.

On the eve of war, there were discussions of the likely costs. Larry Lindsey, President Bush’s economic adviser and head of the National Economic Council, suggested that they might reach $200 billion. But this estimate was dismissed as “baloney” by the Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld. His deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, suggested that postwar reconstruction could pay for itself through increased oil revenues. Mitch Daniels, the Office of Management and Budget director, and Secretary Rumsfeld estimated the costs in the range of $50 to $60 billion, a portion of which they believed would be financed by other countries. (Adjusting for inflation, in 2007 dollars, they were projecting costs of between $57 and $69 billion.) The tone of the entire administration was cavalier, as if the sums involved were minimal.

Even Lindsey, after noting that the war could cost $200 billion, went on to say: “The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.” In retrospect, Lindsey grossly underestimated both the costs of the war itself and the costs to the economy. Assuming that Congress approves the rest of the $200 billion war supplemental requested for fiscal year 2008, as this book goes to press Congress will have appropriated a total of over $845 billion for military operations, reconstruction, embassy costs, enhanced security at US bases, and foreign aid programs in Iraq and Afghanistan.

As the fifth year of the war draws to a close, operating costs (spending on the war itself, what you might call “running expenses”) for 2008 are projected to exceed $12.5 billion a month for Iraq alone, up from $4.4 billion in 2003, and with Afghanistan the total is $16 billion a month. Sixteen billion dollars is equal to the annual budget of the United Nations, or of all but 13 of the US states. Even so, it does not include the $500 billion we already spend per year on the regular expenses of the Defense Department. Nor does it include other hidden expenditures, such as intelligence gathering, or funds mixed in with the budgets of other departments.

Because there are so many costs that the Administration does not count, the total cost of the war is higher than the official number. For example, government officials frequently talk about the lives of our soldiers as priceless. But from a cost perspective, these “priceless” lives show up on the Pentagon ledger simply as $500,000 — the amount paid out to survivors in death benefits and life insurance. After the war began, these were increased from $12,240 to $100,000 (death benefit) and from $250,000 to $400,000 (life insurance). Even these increased amounts are a fraction of what the survivors might have received had these individuals lost their lives in a senseless automobile accident. In areas such as health and safety regulation, the US Government values a life of a young man at the peak of his future earnings capacity in excess of

$7 million — far greater than the amount that the military pays in death benefits. Using this figure, the cost of the nearly 4,000 American troops killed in Iraq adds up to some $28 billion.

The costs to society are obviously far larger than the numbers that show up on the government’s budget. Another example of hidden costs is the understating of US military casualties. The Defense Department’s casualty statistics focus on casualties that result from hostile (combat) action — as determined by the military. Yet if a soldier is injured or dies in a night-time vehicle accident, this is officially dubbed “non combat related” — even though it may be too unsafe for soldiers to travel during daytime.

In fact, the Pentagon keeps two sets of books. The first is the official casualty list posted on the DOD website. The second, hard-to-find, set of data is available only on a different website and can be obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. This data shows that the total number of soldiers who have been wounded, injured, or suffered from disease is double the number wounded in combat. Some will argue that a percentage of these non-combat injuries might have happened even if the soldiers were not in Iraq. Our new research shows that the majority of these injuries and illnesses can be tied directly to service in the war.

From the unhealthy brew of emergency funding, multiple sets of books, and chronic underestimates of the resources required to prosecute the war, we have attempted to identify how much we have been spending — and how much we will, in the end, likely have to spend. The figure we arrive at is more than $3 trillion. Our calculations are based on conservative assumptions. They are conceptually simple, even if occasionally technically complicated. A $3 trillion figure for the total cost strikes us as judicious, and probably errs on the low side. Needless to say, this number represents the cost only to the United States. It does not reflect the enormous cost to the rest of the world, or to Iraq.

From the beginning, the United Kingdom has played a pivotal role — strategic, military, and political — in the Iraq conflict. Militarily, the UK contributed 46,000 troops, 10 per cent of the total. Unsurprisingly, then, the British experience in Iraq has paralleled that of America: rising casualties, increasing operating costs, poor transparency over where the money is going, overstretched military resources, and scandals over the squalid conditions and inadequate medical care for some severely wounded veterans.

Before the war, Gordon Brown set aside £1 billion for war spending. As of late 2007, the UK had spent an estimated £7 billion in direct operating expenditures in Iraq and Afghanistan (76 percent of it in Iraq). This includes money from a supplemental “special reserve”, plus additional spending from the Ministry of Defense.

The special reserve comes on top of the UK’s regular defense budget. The British system is particularly opaque: funds from the special reserve are “drawn down” by the Ministry of Defense when required, without specific approval by Parliament. As a result, British citizens have little clarity about how much is actually being spent.

In addition, the social costs in the UK are similar to those in the US — families who leave jobs to care for wounded soldiers, and diminished quality of life for those thousands left with disabilities.

By the same token, there are macroeconomic costs to the UK as there have been to America, though the long-term costs may be less, for two reasons. First, Britain did not have the same policy of fiscal profligacy; and second, until 2005, the United Kingdom was a net oil exporter.

We have assumed that British forces in Iraq are reduced to 2,500 this year and remain at that level until 2010. We expect that British forces in Afghanistan will increase slightly, from 7,000 to 8,000 in 2008, and remain stable for three years. The House of Commons Defense Committee has recently found that despite the cut in troop levels, Iraq war costs will increase by 2 percent this year and personnel costs will decrease by only 5 percent. Meanwhile, the cost of military operations in Afghanistan is due to rise by 39 per ent. The estimates in our model may be significantly too low if these patterns continue.

See more stories tagged with: iraq, cost of war

Joseph Stiglitz was chief economist at the World Bank and won the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics in 2001. Linda Bilmes is a lecturer in public policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University

Yahoo vs Microsoft & the gambler’s dilemma. Bill where is the value?

ngodirect — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 19:09:57 +0000

The last few weeks have seen a lot of discussion about the potential deal between Microsoft and Yahoo. Few fare better than Bill Gates in predicting the future of a venture. He has a lot of reservations on the deal and some of them are not public. There is a good likelihood that the merger or rather the acquisition of Yahoo will result in a long term negative value for Microsoft. There is a bet going on about the net effect value five years from today of the two companies. Projected growth for Microsoft’s enhanced value will be less than if it had gone forward alone. The same is true for Yahoo projected also as an independent company. Further aggravating the landscape is the loss of focus resulting in Microsoft from this search based acquisition. Also the lack of native talent and wisdom development in Redmond will result in long term stagnation of the search field in Seattle.

Ah the Dilemma of the Rich…..When you have plenty of money and few available targets, You must do the best you can to invest where growth exists. Bill wants to spend the plentiful cashe of Microsoft before he goes off into the Ivory halls of Social Enrepreneurship full time and he sees this as a good target since Search is the one game that got away from his grasp in that field. Good Luck.

Bill is a gambler as he should be. So he knows the risks of the biggest Microsoft acquisition to day. Steve isn’t a gambler so maybe he doesn’t know the risks but he treks forward headfirst nonetheless.

Risk is an inherent characteristic of all strategic decisions and especially M&A in that there is some degree of uncertainty associated with decision outcomes. Since M&A deals result in a 79% failure in value in the long term, and some outcomes are more desirable than others then the risk here is far greater than announced for Microsoft and it’s long term value, but not for Yahoo.

As evidenced in a broad-based body of research, M&A risk affects decision behavior by influencing perceptions of the decision situation, evaluation of alternatives, choices made, and other decision-related actions taken in response to risk. Accurate business valuation is one of the most important aspects of M&A as valuation of Msoft and Yahoo at the freeze point will have a major impact on the price that Yahoo will be liquidated for. Most often this information is expressed in a Letter of Opinion of Value (LOV) when the business is being valuated for interest’s sake. Such document doesn’t exist in this liquid deal. There are other, more detailed ways of expressing the value of a business and none is a sure fire way in the hyped climate of a high profile acquisition target in a contested industry of web search and advertising. Bill and Steve have sharp minds and great research at their disposal but did they lose their competitive appetite to build the search and advertising platform to outcompete Google? Is this why they go out to buy a company off the shelf? Yahoo is a company that can’t effectively compete against Google.

You are a value investor Bill….

So, where is the value?

Bleeding edge blog

ngodirect — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 18:28:40 +0000

Bleeding edge blog

3G to 3C : Great people, Great CEOs, Great Companies for Community, Communication & Convergence

Simple Advice to a powerful Prince. Open letter to the CEO of China Mobile. Mr Wang, respect your consumers rights to privacy.

February 23, 2008 by panokroko

China Mobile CEO Mr Wang’s Leadership Qualities

China Mobile is the largest Mobile telecommunications company in the world with 376 million consumers communicating through their own network. They will have more than 400 million in less than a year from now. The head of China’s biggest mobile phone company, which has almost 400 million subscribers, stunned me as well as I am sure all the Telecom WEF delegates in Davos present, by revealing that the company’s unlimited access to the personal data of its customers were handed over to Chinese security officials when simply demanded. This sent chills through me and the sensitive or savvy leaders in attendance. In a natural duplicity posture, Mr Wang’s admission was described as “bone-chilling” by US Congressman Ed Markey. By the way Mr MARKEY had voted to let the US Telcos off the hook for the US Telco spying scandal with retroactive law immunity offered by the Bush Administration. Yet the implication sent shivers through an audience of seasoned telecom experts at the World Economic Forum who immediately saw the potential for misuse and surveillance.Mr Wang continued unperturbed : “We know who you are, but also where you are,” said the CEO of China Mobile Communications Corporation, Wang Jianzhou. Scary Orwell’s words from 1984 spoken by the CEO of……CMCC adds six million new customers to its network each month and is already the biggest mobile group in the world. He was explaining how the company could use the personal data of its customers to sell advertising and services to them based on knowledge of where they were and what they were doing. When pressed about the privacy and security implications of this, he added: “We can access the information and see where someone is, but we never give this information away … only if the security authorities ask for it.” I am afraid Mr Wang doesn’t get the impact of his words and actions. Does he really not get it?I submit that the company and it’s leaders have more input and enjoy greater loyalty with their consumer constituency than the central Beijing government of the People’s party. The CEO of the CMCC has more clout to defend privacy rights than the security forces have. He only needs to mobilize the support of his constituency and demand their opinion. Consumers now are Pro-sumers and so is the next Billion people that CMCC will surely achieve in numbers as it defends it’s growth rates for the next ten years. If only Mr Wang exercised the backbone and the morality to defend proper rule of law for privacy and protection of individual human rights we could see a new paradigm emerging. Mr Wang must understand that he is more relevant than the Chinese Premier in the people’s hearts and minds and certainly in the Convergence, Communication Community of connected people. Especially since the company trades in the public markets of HK and is accountable to investors it can maintain and defend it’s distance and independence from the Beijing Bureaucrats. Why then the CEO caves in the issues of defending his people’s rights.

Mr Wang, I advise You to wake up and smell the roses. Rise up and listen to the people. When we met in the the 2008 China Mobile CEO Annual Conference this January in Beijing’s Avic Hotel You reassured me that now and especially in light of the upcoming Beijing Olympics, You shall personaly ensure that Due Process of Law for information gathering by security forces will be exercised within CMCC. There is a contradiction here. Why the failure of strength?

I am fully aware that words like FREEDOM & DEMOCRACY are illegal in China today. I also know of your country leadership’s deep sensitivity to the People’s Rights and the Chinese constitution. It is this Constitutional document that prevents you from handing over the private information and willy-nilly sealing the fate of people for thought crimes or assumed crimes of expression and communication. People have gone to prison for expressing their views over your network. Not criminals by a long shot. Just people talking. Like we do now.

Mr Wang, please don’t be like the Yahoos of Yahoo who deserve to lose their company to the Nordic hordes. It was Yahoo that without due process and without any conscience check, sealed the fate of the Chinese journalist whose Yahoo email records were turned over to the police without proper court order. Yahoo was widely despised in China after they divulged the email records information to Beijing police that pursued the Chinese journalist Shi Tao in jail. Shi Tao was convicted in 2005 of divulging state secrets after he posted a Chinese government order forbidding media organisations from marking the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square uprising on the Internet. We know that He was identified with information provided by Yahoo and was sentenced to 10 years in jail. Ten years of his Life in hard Labor because he trusted Yahoo to protect his privacy. Yahoo failed him and us (all of us) miserably and that is why he is now another casualty of the freedom of Speech and Privacy rights, global wars.

It is only one of the reasons why I believe Bill Gates move to acquire Yahoo will not bring value to Microsoft but only long term problems. It is Steve Ballmer who lobbies for this deal more than anyone else and moved Bill over to his position. It’s an ill founded and mistaken position. Yahoo is a leaking ship. Yahoo is a company floundering with lack of clear leadership and most serious lack of Back bone. Microsoft doesn’t need the burden right now. If only they decide to pour the Yahoo targeted resources to building Global search talent and net advertising loyalty, they could best Google as they bested Netscape and other Cali threats to their dominance.

But for Mr Wang we must remind him that the mobile phone has become a serious threat to privacy in all countries. However we expect the Leadership to come from him and others in whose trust and company the people risk the most from the CEO’s abuse of power and blatant abuse of trust. In countries where and when people risk long jail and hard labor for many years and even execution, it is the imperative to the Prince CEO to protect his people against abuse. Lets see clear leadership coming from China as it befits a ten thousand people-years history of Sino Civilization. Be a new Paradigm for the world.

If the CEO of China Mobile uses the network for evil, it is easily converted from an amazing wireless interconnected community to a comprehensive surveillance network.

But please Mr Wang remember that this Network has been built and set up through the market forces and consumer demand. Each time a cell phone is activated we have another mobile node making this a more intelligent network. There is a person holding this phone and needs to be protected. The network belongs to the people not the company. It is the 400 million people community of users that brings the value to the China Mobile Company. It is not the switches, relays, towers, licences and antennae that have the value. Please remember this. It is a relevant lesson right about now.

The whole telecommunications industry suffers a Malaise of failing to protect people’s rights. Don’t follow the example of the few US and European spineless telecom leaders but lead your people with Confucian wisdom to the safety of listening to the four hundred million people who trust you every moment and day of their life with their freedom. Literally they trust You with their Life. Think of it.

My insistence on the practicality of this Business and political advice is most evident in my consideration of the personality, character, and conduct of the successful CEO. No matter what idealistic notions are adopted as principles of private morality, the CEO must exhibit virtues that other people will follow them, and trust upon. Contrary to the old belief that the honorable or virtuous Leader is at a distinct disadvantage in the real world in order to achieve success in public life; the current CEO must know precisely when and how to do what only the good people do. The CEO has to follow his heart just as often as he follows his brain. Although private morality may rest on other factors—divine approval, personal character, or abstract duties, for example—in public life only the praise and blame of fellow human beings really counts for the CEO and the value of the Corporation in the eyes of it’s investors. When we invested in CMCC more than sixteen years ago, the only other investor in wireless Telecoms in China was another friend Craig Mc Caw. The great growth enjoyed till now is a just reward for offering this cheap advise to You.

Great CEOs are generous while spending their time dealing with the modern corporation’s complexity. The CMCC is too complex to be managed by any single human being, thus the CEO must engender a culture of moral and enlightened leadership within the organization. All of this talk about skillful leadership would be pointless, of course, if human beings do not in fact have control over their own actions, but must constantly live at the mercy of blind fate or fortune. In the end, even if sheer luck determines the greater portion of our destinies, we can still take full responsibility for whatever remains. Acknowledging the possibilities for failure, the skillful CEO does better to act boldly than to try to calculate every possible eventuality. Mr Wang act decisively and turn a page with a bold Move. Stop sharing information and stop listening indiscriminately to people’s private connections. You violate the trust that has been placed upon you and the stock price of the company will reflect this soon enough. If You do not heed this advise You will see how quickly value disintegrates in the community of Interconnected individual Investors of PE and HF as well as more fickle international Capital and FDI.

Tags: a powerful Prince, and, CEO of CMCC, CHINA, China Mobile, China Mobile Company, CMCC, consumers rights, hangover. Iran, Imperial ambitions, Journalist, Mr Wang, Open letter to the CEO, respect your, respect your consumers rights, Shi Tao, Simple Advice, to privacy, Vodafone mess
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Vodafone mess and Imperial ambitions hangover. Iran next?

February 21, 2008 by panokroko

Reading the British press and news, the whole Iran issue just seems like something rumbling along in the background. Savvy secretive operatives outside of the mainstream seem to think that American military strikes are weeks away. In fact, covert American military action has already started. Again convenient allies in the clandestine efforts are the willing, unwilling Wireless Telcos that have ramped up surveillance as needed by their spymasters. UK’s Vodafone leads the way here. An exemplar of growth and responsibility under Sir Christopher Gent, the current Vodafone leadership is mirred in scandal and greed. The company is seen as the spymaster’s whore and has publicly been revealed as the perpetrators of numerous eavesdropping and spying on ordinary citizens and high public officials without Due process of Law. Are You reminded by the US Telco debacle?

Unfortunately the corruption into the system is endemic:

Built into the software that runs the Vodafone (UK-owned) mobile telephony network switching system for GSM service providers around the world, is a little-known “Legal Interception” software package designed to be used by law enforcement authorities. This software allows incoming and outgoing conversations from allegedly up to 5000-6000 mobile phone numbers per switching center to be recorded, on presentation of a valid judicial warrant. Telecoms claim that governments require from telephone companies to give law enforcement authorities the capability to monitor up to 5% of active calls as one precondition for an operating license. Seldom the legal warrant is invoked when the listening facility is used.

Who is responsible when the Illegal Intercepts of the telecommunications are massively exercised without Due Process? Princes beware…

When the scandal seems to hit the press the Mea Culpas aren’t enough. The Business Model of the Wireless operators and the Investors Mandate is not what the current regimes require the company to perform. Can the Board of Directors with steely resolve and British Backbone resist the easy path down to destruction for this great Company?

It seems they should before any Jurist and regulators or the European Commissioners step in; as I don’t think that anyone in Europe has the temerity to issue them a Free Get out of Jail Ticket as was issued to the American Telco Counterparts for their offences.

Yet again Who knows as Uncle Sam and Aunt Emma seem to lock step right about now. At least no lobbying to that effect is under way in EU yet. Maybe the European Commissioners work in a more secretive way and can be persuaded to keep still and quiet. A good Hope to pray for at night before the nightmare begins. A sure sign of things to come is the Vodafone response:

A publicity campaign by Vodafone to assure voters in Europe of their respect for privacy, individual and fundamental human rights is a must. Image is everything on this issue ready to explode in the public eye. In specifics this should be part of a backdrop of sensitivity fuelled by the one prominently public Vodafone spying scandal in Greece. Around 1000 mobile phones of citizens and more than one hundred mobile phones used by the Prime Minister (head of State) and including those phones belonging to all senior ministers of the government; they were found to being tapped via software installed on Vodafone’s network. The uncovered part of the spying fiasco started when the Euro-socialist party was in power, and continued when the more conservative Right wing party formed the current administration. Conveniently for Vodafone and the British hacks, this means both parties have been able to blame the other, and throw lots of mud around, without actually having to reveal who was listening in to the phone taps nor being able or willing to penalize the company due to extreme pressure from Whitehall.

Now that the next war looms, Vodafone opened the listening gates again and harvests wind…. WHY?

Tags: and Imperial ambitions hangover, Iran next?, mess, Vodafone
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Europe’s Expansion — Kosovo is a new born country — Baby Laughs — Baby Cries

February 20, 2008 by panokroko

From Pristina the view is not all roses. The cheering happy crowds drink beer and party on the streets waving their new flag. It reminds you of the fans of a winning football team celebrating their victory. And it just might be that.Their team won. They are in a giant Lovefest. Mark your calendars, there will be a babyboom nine months hense. Even the call girls give one for free country.

People throw flowers to the American, the British and the KFOR soldiers, but they throw their empty beer bottles to the Russian mission interests or to the legates of the countries oppossed to their independence.

Anytime there is a new country born into the old Europe and especially into the Balkans it’s Cause Celebre. Surely those countries liberated in the 17th and 18th century (most of Europe) post Empire, as well as the countries freed post Iron Curtain; all feel the need to sympathize with Kosovo and Skopjia and Montenegro. Why then do they refrain from joining the festivities? What will be their attitude of fear for their own minorities that are pressing for self Rule? Is FUD holding them back? What will happen now and perhaps in the future with the Basque region and Sardinia or Corsica or Creta, or Scotland or Alsace or Sicily or ad infinitum. If they want their independence what reason anyone has to hold them tied into a broken-down dream and an oppressive marriage? The more regional diversity within Europe the greater the chance of Multiculturalism surviving the age of Hollywood. The beauty of this schema is that independence for these regions, microstates and new microcountries; will be far easier and effective within the European Union and the framework of Community Development. The regional Independence enhances the prospects of these regions and countries away from the oppressive regimes of their present or yesterday home rule. After all minorities rule. They are the strongest supporters of Democracy and self Expression and as a group they are better off alone. Alone as self governed and within their choice of embrace they prosper. As the Jews and Moriscos of European Spain found out when they were expelled from Spain by Isabel and Ferdinand in 1492. The gold at the end of the Rainbow rests with their Independence as todays Kosovars also know. They know well enough that with hard work they will prosper. They will prosper and surpass their neighbors in ascencion to European Union and Nato and certainly in GDP and GNP development. Give them five years and the PCI will surpass that of all their oppressive and byreaucratic neighbors. It’s a bet. Take it on. What do You think?

FDI into Kosovo will return wonders especially in the Telecommunication infrastructure Direct Investments. A new Democracy is best nurtured with FDI and the Kosovo people of all ethnic or religious stripes will be thankfull for your investment and your bet in their well-being and prosperity.

Tags: Alsace, Basque, Birth of a Nation. Microcountries, Corsica, Creta, European Union, FDI, Kosovo Independence, Minorities, New Nation, New regional countries, Scotland, Sicily
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY KOSOVO — BIRTH OF A NATION — International Business celebrates Kosovo Independence

February 18, 2008 by panokroko

Now, the time has come to, let pragmatism triumph and celebrate the independence of Kosovo. The EU and US as well as all major countries should recognize Kosovo ASAP. Russia and few politically arteriosklerotic nations led by fear for their revisionist policies against their own minorities, will wait a few years.

Yet for the people of Kosovo, for the CEOs and International Telecommunication Business we break open the Bubbly. Cheers to a new Free nation.

The most important piece of unfinished business in the Balkans was the final status of Kosovo, the southern province of Serbia, which has been under international trusteeship since NATO’s intervention in 1999. Anxious to scale back its obligations in the region and confronted with growing impatience among Kosovo’s population, the international community is finally gearing up for Kosovo’s political future, as provided for under UN Security Council Resolution 1244 as an independent country with the prospects for NATO and EU membership rather bright and far ahead of it’s neighbors and past tormentors. It is a bold experiment and I plan to be there to witness the Birth of a Nation.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY KOSOVO

Tags: Business, CEOs, Independence, Kosovo, Self Determination, Telcos
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Legacy vs Business = War vs FDI = Loss vs Profits

February 18, 2008 by panokroko

National Democrats seem content to let the clock run out on George W. Bush’s presidency with no serious effort to hold him accountable. George W. Bush’s “war on terror” and the Iraq War have led the United States to debase its highest ideals, at home and abroad. As the time on his presidency ticks down, George W. Bush is still trying to stoke the fires of confrontation with Iran, relying on his signature mix of bellicosity and self-righteousness.

Why this is good business for wireless carriers in the area and mobile Investors in general. Iran maintains an ideological leadership and claim to hold the line on the west for more than a billion people East of the Middle East. From Caucasus and Turkey all the way to India there are Parsi peoples everywhere and many others who regard Persia as the intellectual and trend leader for the Middle East as others regard Canada for the Americas or Scandinavia for Europe. Iran has three main mobile telephony providers who do great penetration business with about 73% of the population being wireless. In contrast the state owned old line Telco only has 57% lines to people. The regional mobile wireless players are innovative and less expensive than counterparts in the rest of the middle East. In Iran also exist no less than five MVNOs and numerous bucket sellers. The foreign direct investment there is European and mainly German and French. It’s a huge market and is closer to the mainline for the other billions of people residing as consumers on the Bottom of the Pyramid.

The threat of war with Iran increases the opportunitiesfor these wireless players that are open to FDI from willing Strategic Investors. On the main blog you get to see their RPUs and ROI along with discussion with the CEOs. My friend Naguib Sawiris has made smart investments in the Iraq wireless and mobile infrastructure and is eyeing the Persian market with a tenuous foothold there. In due time he will jump in. Others will follow. The openness of the market and the youthful appeal are magnetic draws. Also he who controls the wireless is the leader in communication services and the convergence in Iran is still far away. Opportunity abounds. The good thing with FDI is that no war nor invasion is necessary to gain a legitimate market share. It is a far more intelligent approach to win friends and influence people. Now if only we could lift the embargo too since the Intelligence community assured us that Iran is not (NOT) a nuclear threat we can do some healthy business even if You have to do so via Europe and China. China Mobile will ink a deal there in the next few months….Any lessons here?

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT RULES !!!

Tags: billion people, Bottom of the pyramid, FDI, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, George W Bush, Legacy, Mobile companies, third world telcos, Wireless Companies
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Spying Telcos and the Senate get out of Jail free ticket.

February 18, 2008 by panokroko

Dear Friends,

If I didn’t see it with my own eyes on CSPAN, I would have never believed it.
The United States Senate passed a bill Tuesday granting retroactive immunity to telecom companies that helped spy on Americans and all others – without a warrant. Chief Culprits are AT&T, Verizon, Mabell’s babies etc. You know who you are. You read this blog too, I know.Pretty amazing … Congress just sanctioned the single largest invasion of privacy in American history. In world history really. President Bush and his cunning Dodos gave a free get out of Jail card to all those Evil Big Brother CEOs and law breaking corporations. Think Watergate only massive. Think Richard “Dickie” Mylhaouz Nixon not resigning the highest office in the land hours before impeachment but rather sanctioning the break in and spying by his minions on all American homes.

The loss of Civil liberty is so massive that everyone has been affected by this. The Telcos after breaking the law massively, rushed to lobby for a reprieve from the law they just burned. They succeeded last Tuesday upon payments to the electoral campaigns of both parties.

Folks, this is much bigger than ENRON, Worldcom, MCI, Tyco and AT&T scandals combined. This is wholesale liquidation of Democracy. Business cannot thrive in a vacuum of Law. Statistics will remind us for ever of this day as the day of Infamy for the Communication companies. Let me be clear. I told You so.

Stalin said: Το kill one man is a murder, to kill a million is a statistic. Interesting times we live in. To paraphrase : When there is eavesdropping in one office it’s a crime. When there is a wholesale eavesdropping in every home of a whole nation it’s a statistic worth a pardon and a new infamous law.

Just when you thought we couldn’t get any lower, our Democracy took the Coup De grase.

Madison is murmuring in his grave: Lame fools Ye shall be thrown to the Dogs.Where are the presidential candidates on this issue? Where was senator McCain taking a stand on this? Where are the proponents of Fair and Honest Corporate governance? Where were they then and where are they now, the responsible Boards of Directors of these unjust Telcos? Where are the New Millenium Telecommunication Companies we have been buiding after the age of Scandals? Are we building a fleet of companies that resemble a fleet of seagoing rats? Are we teaching our CEOs to lie, cheat, break the law willy nilly when convenient, if the powerfull can be offered protection. Is this Democracy for Sale? Who is protecting this fragile idea of a Democracy? The powerful protectors? Who is minding the protectors? Who is watching the watchers? Who wants to do business like this in a festering environment? Who wants to lecture China and Russia on human Rights? The waterboarding defenders? We’ve hit rock bottom folks. Wake up and smell the piss before they take that away too. We piss off our rights AT OUR OWN PERIL.

In the face of this defeat of Democracy in America, I becοme even more convinced that old Europe is showing the leadership lacking in the US.

On the Democratic side too, the leading presidential contenders stayed silent. Civil Liberties are smoke and Mirrors for the delegate pacmen.

Only one exception and I am thankful for Chris Dodd’s stand on this issue as there is one cuckoo who might….. or might not bring the Spring.

Now I make an appeal too.
For old times sake, let’s forgive the Telcos and our friendly CEOs in the US but let’s remind the European Commissioners to pound them hard because Civil Liberties, Privacy Rights and Individual Human Rights are global as perceived by the UN charter of Human Rights and they are still relevant in some other lands. Across the pond the jurists are sharpening their pencils my friends….Crimes such as these do not stop by the water’s edge. Nor by territorial national borders. We live in a connected world remember? Your evil actions are global and punishable in many progressive countries and courts. We are all interconnected, so let your fingers do the walking across the map…

Does commissioner Redding still read this blog? If so, Viviane please pay attention. Here is where leadership is urgently needed.P.S. This blogpost will be just as much a surprise to presidential hopefuls as it was to you — so please, let’s make it a pleasant one and retire the debt we all have to the Telcos. Stop paying your bill to them and find alternative providers for your business unless you enjoy the special attention.

Tags: AT&T, Baby Bells, Board of Directors, Corporate Governance, Democracy, Eavesdropping Telcos, Enron, MaBell, MCI, Telcos, Telecomunication Companies Pardon for spying on America, Tyco, Verizon, Worldcom
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Business Models for Telefonica and Fon.com

February 18, 2008 by panokroko

Telefonica’s Blended Telco Subscription
Model

========

Fon.com Wi-fi ISP blended business model

Usage Metering : Land Lines to the Users are charged a periodic — daily, monthly or annual — fee to subscribe to the service. Telefonica with copper and fiber combines the voice and data service content with “premium” (i.e., subscriber- or member-only) content. Subscription fees are incurred irrespective of actual usage rates. Subscription and advertising models are going to be frequently combined for their new services. Content Services — provide text, audio, data or video connections and content to users who subscribe for a fee to gain access to the service. Cable TV is their new thing. Person-Mobile-Person Networking Wireless Services — are the conduits for the voice interconnect and distribution of user-submitted information, such as individuals searching for simple services and support. Localized info and advertising is the growth area here. Trust Services — come in the form of payments, special service memberships that abide by an explicit code of conduct, and in which members pay a subscription fee for security and safety.==================================

Wireless Internet Services Providers even wi-fi ones and especially Fon.com use this model. Now Fon.com uses the revolutionary (yet tried and tired) cooperative business model first developed by Yours truly and implemented by Seattle Wireless Inc several years back

This business model offesr network connectivity on the go and related wi-fi services on a monthly subscription along with the many providers on whose services they piggy back by virtue of consumers willing to share or the companies making expensive roaming deals.

In an imaginary world of giving and selfless people this would work.

We all hope this world is A BEAUTIFUL WORLD , MORAL AND CREATED BY ANGELS….and then this business model might have a chance.

Tags: Business Models, FON.COM, Telcos, TELEFONICA
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now in Spain : NEW TEN YEAR OLD NEWSLETTER-Back from the Future: Davos, WEF, Big Billy G, WI-Fi, Telefonica, Fon.com and Yahoo-Microsoft shotgun wedding

February 18, 2008 by panokroko

Fresh start after ten years of looking at the future: STAGEPLAY-TRAVELOGUE-ACT I-

First time Open to the Public-

Stagefright indeed, as this is gonna be your “LOCAL” with freshly brewed hops.

I go to Spain to see Telefonica which is an old line telecom doing some surprising things. César Alierta, has been working hard to find a vision of the company serving 27 Spanish speaking countries plus China’s market and to define strategies that are adapted to this new reality. A reality that includes, Mobile, Land, Wireless,Wi-Fi, and all things communicable…

THIS IS THE SCIENCE FICTION TRAVELOGUE OF THE GURU.
IT IS MEANT AS A LIGHTER HUMOROUS AND OPEN LITERARY VERSION OF THE “COMMUNICATION CONVERGENCE CHRONICLE” MY TEN YEAR OLD BABY BLOG. THAT WAS THE LEGENDARY CXO FUTURE INTERNET WORLD BLOG.

NOW WE CHANGE. MY “INTELLIGENCE FROM THE FUTURE” BLOG CELEBRATED TEN YEARS AT THIS MONTH’S DAVOS FORUM AND I DECIDED TO START WRITING THIS TRAVELOGUE OF SCIENCE FICTION FOR THE DISCRIMINATING FUTURE LEADERS FOR THE GLOBAL BRAIN.

AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT WE START LOOKING AT THE FUTURE TOGETHER FROM SPAIN WHERE I WAS INVITED BY TWO COMPANY CHIEFS. TELEFONICA’S CEO CESAR ALIERTA and “FON.COM” A.K.A. MARTIN VARSAVSKY’S WI-FI COMPANY.

ON THIS BLOG WE FOCUS FITTINGLY ON THE YOUNG START UP FON.COM IN ALGOBENDAS MADRID.

SPAIN IS EUROPEAN UNION’S MOST CONSERVATIVE MEMBER STATE. THE “FON.COM” COMPANY IS MARTIN VARSAVSKY’S GRAND SCHEME TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD VIA WI-FI.

THIS SCIENCE FICTION PIECE WAS WRITTEN CIRCA FEB 9 2008.
I am still in Europe for Davos and co. I had a good size sex drugs and rock and roll celebratory party on the slopes for my ten years there. Apres-party festivities and with a clear foggy-bottom mind in Davos, I decided to offer a version of the blog open to the community at large, while still sharing some of the insights religiously served during the last ten years in the exclusive company of the greats. The great CEOs of the great firms and great to be companies bringing us the future of Internet, Communication and Technology.
Now this Sci-Fi travelogue is more like the personal musings of a seer of the 3Cs to the 3Gs. A wandering prophet who tries to help and share vision. It is a meandering path and very open ended inviting all to share. You should read it as SCI-FI. Science Fiction as my friend Paul had told me is the story of our tomorrows. I told him it was good to go out and build a museum then. Never expected that he would go out and really do it…that’s Seattle weather for You. Makes people do the seemingly impossible. SciFi museum is now open for business.
Now To give you a bit of the Davos on this open blog too….
DAVOS is DEAD. LONG LIVE DAVOS. Davos has become a bit of CES meets TED fruit salad; only more posh. No solutions here, only great people. Ah… and a lot of Scandinavian blondes this year here. Some of them if you scratch a little deeper you find them coming from Estonia, Lettonia, Russia, Latvia… Baltic blondes, sexy Valkyries selling their Bra-topias to the world’s rich and powerful. Yes and to some greats too. What a trade!!! The old skin game. These blondes are the Hanseatic league’s new trade weapon. Here is where CH runs a deficit. Switzerland can’t exchange money fast enough to pay them in Euros. Because these beautiful “Models” play well and get paid only in Euros. No dollars, no credit cards, no Swiss franks. Only Euros. Something tells me they know something we don’t. Well done WEF…and you thought Davos was all about shake hands and save the world stuff. Well yes but….it is also shake down and slip me some skin too.
Here I was happy to see old friends and it’s here where I run into and afterwards travelled with, Bill Gates to Athens and Abhu Dhabi where he promoted his enlightened vision for the world. Thanks Bill, brilliant talker, nice plane and good toys too.
PS: |Tidbits about the Yahoo Microsoft supersize deal; for your eyes only on the other blog : 3Cs for 3Gs|
As an aside, before I came to Europe from Asia, I had tried to connect with and communicated with the head of Telefonica. The CEO, Cesar Alierta, who had just made a significant investment into China agreed to meet. A regional old stodgy, conservative Telco going to compete in China and placing a big bet indeed. What is this conservative Spanish mamoth doing in the Sino-zone? We’ll find out.

Another Spanish aside was Martin Varsevsky founder and CEO of “FON.COM” Company. I also emailed him a few times before he got it. After a long echo time delay, he replied hastily and he invited me to visit him in Madrid and be friends with his new company FON.COM
Now for those of you who don’t know my soft spot for WI-FI….well you are forgiven.

Those of you who don’t know Martin Varsevsky; well how could you not know him. Billionaire exraordinaire….he promotes himself so much, you would think he is Che Guevarra.
When in Davos, I had him in mind and asked for him. But he wasn’t there. After all what the hell do hard working start up founders want to do lazing about in Davos? a bit of Hanseatic league trading perhaps? Not this Martin.
Anyway I accepted his invitation to be his friend and visit him as a guest. Spaniards are really hospitable people. And me….I am still looking in that place in my heart for anyone who will bring us the wi-fi community. I’ ve worked and lusted after this dream for far too long and spent far too much energy for.
But this is a new century, maybe even a new millennium, depending on whose calendar you look at; and this is now an open conversation….
Now that the wi-fi wars have ended; a group of old line telecom soldiers joyously enter the field. They are the sanitary brigade or the vulture corpses as some ungraceful wifiers call them.
Still the wi-fi train terminal is electric with the arrival of these men. This is ACTION time, again. In European soil now, in the old conservative Madrid. I was invited here to meet FON, a two year old wi-fi company.

“LOS PERDIDOS”. I arrived in a taxi of a lost taxi man to meet Martin Varsavsky (late 50’s, handsome and charismatic) who wants to show me his latest toy, the “FON.com” Wi-fi company funded by him and Index and some other illustrious investors. He wants to receive the WI-FI elders acceptance. We meet on time in the low slung three story non-descript corpo-kennel building. He peruses the visitor unapprovingly but his visitor is tired until he sees…
Nina his assistant/friday girl (white, late 20’s, classic german blonde) at the top of the stairs. Blown hair, A gone with the wind look set up to impress invites me in to give some comfort.
We go for lunch in the corpo-cafeteria. The action continues as Martin and Nina lead me up to the office to meet and talk to the troops. Martin asks me to speak about Seattle Wireless (RIP). He gathers the company people in a large conference room and I talk…
Instead of a Gray’s Anatomy lecture and a Post Mortem, I talk about the future. The future of our interconnected world. I offer Martin and his workers, the greatest of gifts. The Mahayanna-Sutra, the jewels of my heart. The roadmap to the future. Not just glimpses but real views and a vista to stand on and create lasting value. I don’t pull any punches and I speak with the same vision that will someday get us there. I believe that if you want to go forward and seize the day, you don’t need a map of the past. You probably need a map of the future. Unfortunately, Telecom people generally don’t get that concept. The willingness to repeat the past as a road to success is built-in for them. Tested and True they trumpet till AT&T bites the dust.
Now back to the talk I gave to the Developers and Code Scribes of “FON.COM” in Madrid.
As I talked, I noticed sleepy people perking up. Signs of Intelligent Life and voices asking questions….The enthusiasm and the happy reception of my message for the FON-troops is stronger than expected. Revivalist religious meeting it turns out to be. I like it. The Fon people were wildly enthusiastic about the talk and I gave them a lot of brain candy as I am sure some of the ideas I seeded will take root. Some of these wi-fi front line warriors are charismatic enough to help bring us the future in another incarnation.
After my Churchill battle cry, we had a short talk about the old Seattle Wireless days and Q&A. Still I focus on where the future is and to Martin’s dismay and consternation, I tell them is not there in bed with the old line TELCOs nor with their offsprings and the wisps.

But MV is uncomfortable. We retreated to his office where after the ceremonial exchange of gifts we agree to meet for a private high level discussion the next day at 4pm.
I gave my jewels, but somehow feel like offering diamonds.
There is a church nearby. Good place to pray for “Los Perdidos”

The train is still in the station as I leave…
TRANSITION TO:
SCENE 2
EXT. MADRID’S THYSSEN BORMENITZA MYSEUM
The Modigliani paintings on a touring exhibit here give me the real reason why I am here. Liberation through progressive Art. Modigliani was an innovator with a deep respect of the Art he served; he was a wandering jew in his proclivities and created lyrical paintings. His muse and “music” continues to haunt and embrace us, as Jane or Mae or Noora face me; reclining nude and inviting….inside this Old palazzo of Art.
My reveries and hard-on is interrupted from an insistant phone call from a Jane or Mae or Noora assistant to assistant to assistant to Martin Varsevsky who is cancelling our meeting scheduled for the next hour. Tshhh…. Martin’s late notice for a guest who travelled across the European wi-fi wasteland to meet with You. Bad manners and all but the future telco emperor of Madrid asserts himself in Late notices from the herald while claiming work obligations. Maybe in the land of Bullfights there is a lot of bull.
After all this is Madrid where Martin even owns a goddamn theater imitating my other great friend PA of Seattle.
This frees up my remains of the Day to see more great art locked up in museums and see great prostitute hotspots or roaming hookers on the plazas and the streets. Manu Chao is on the I-phone and Madrid’s sexual energy rocks. Here in central Madrid the hookers look like the regular Spanish women, low ridding Hoes. Whose style is this anyway? Is the working girls bringing it from Tijuana or is the Spanish girls rebelling against Parisian fashion? A bit of both and the Hoe’s style is so big in Madrid that all the girls work for money or so it seems to the untrained observer. A rigorous scientific test must follow.
Later in the day while negotiating the skin fare, I get a call from a young dev-gun in FON saying that Martin blew me off to go bicycling. To waste his Friday for a long weekend before the two week vacation to Jamaika…Ahhh the rigors of Life of the start up…A hay ride indeed.
THE TRAIN IS STILL AT THE STATION and looks like the wheels have been taken off…
This train is called “Cometa” “REDUX” for those of you who remember and especially those of you who invested into COMETA or this latest version of it. You all know I believe in Reincarnation…
BRILLIANT SELF PROMOTION leads YOU into this train RIP down the street. Similar brilliant mind that led you to COMETA-FON efforts few years back.
RETURN TO THE FUTURE WITH ALLIENS AND ALL. Or is it “Return of the Fonbies”.
I am heading back to Prado for inspiration before taking off to go see the Alhambra….the Jewel of the Moors.
A LITTLE DIALOG FOR THOSE FANS OF EMPEROR LEAR AND THE BARD:
INVESTORS OF RIP
Now, where are we going?
MV
Not much further.
INVESTOR OF RIP
I don’t like surprises.
MV
You’ll like this one.
A freshly painted sign over a club reads RIP’S JOINT. A worker is putting in the final light bulb over the sign. The sign lights up.
In the harsh light you can still see Movimento FON in the wet paint’s background
INVESTOR OF RIP
Incredible…Rip’s Joint?!?
MV
Welcome back, baby.
INVESTOR OF RIP
My own club?
Nina smiles as she watches Rip. She starts to sit on a stool just as Teo (Italian, late 20’s) slides in and holds the chair for her.
MV
One day, I know you’ll love me.
FADE TO BLACK:
END ACT ONE
ACT II
INT. THE HEART OF MADRID’S PLAZA MAYOR, SQUARE.
MV sings and dances his heart out.
MV
SO NOW YOU GET THE GIST
OF HOW THIS WORKS
IF YOU HAVE ANY PROBLEMS
CALL TECH SUPPORT.
The writer starts typing madly knowing that all he now has to do is add the words…
THE LIGHTS FADE TO BLACK…
ACT III
NEXT DAY I HAD A SOMBER MEETING WITH THE CHIEF OF TELEFONICA. WE HAD A WONDERFUL LUNCH IN A POSH RESTO AND TALKED LIKE ON AN OPEN SOURCE GATHERING. VERY REFRESHING. NOW TELEFONICA IS THE MAIN TELEPHONE COMPANY IN SPAIN WITH A HUGE PRESENCE IN LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE AND NOW IN CHINA. I HAD REQUESTED THIS MEEETING IN SHANGHAI AND HE RESPONDED PROMPTLY. A GRACIOUS HOST INDEED HE SPOKE ABOUT HIS VISION OF THE FUTURE AND THE MOBILE WORLD. A SMALL PART OF IT IS WIFI AND IT STANDS IN THE MIDDLE OF 3G AND DATA SERVICES. CORRECTLY PUT…. THE CEO OF TELEFONICA PLAYS A BETTER HAND FOR THE WIFI COMMUNITY THAN MARTIN. NEXT WEEK MORE ON THE MOBILE, FIXED, 3G CONVERGENCE AND WIFI INTEGRATION. A CONSERVATIVE OLD LINE COMPANY GETTING A RARE GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE. THE CEO OF TELEFONICA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE COMPANY GETS 37% OF IT’S INCOME FROM OPERATIONS OVERSEAS ALREADY. A WEIGHTY SUM INDEED.
SATURDAY IS PRADO AND CHUECCA WIFI DAY

It’s here that dawned on me that Imitation is the sincerest form of respect and homage. Fon.com simply recycled the old Business Model of SeattleWireless.com the model I created more than 7 years ago and made it a national offering in the US. God it’s been so long. Ruminating over a Carahillo coffee I answer my mobile. Its Denica, my bulgarian girlfriend. Denica called to tell me between sobs that she is pregnant. I will be daddy again. God Davos was a blurr, but a pregnant girlfriend too?

I WENT TO CHECK OUT THE WIFI IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE FON.COM HAS SET UP THEIR FIRST COMMUNITY. CHUECCA IS FULL OF GAY AMBIENCE WITH A LOT OF HOTSPOTS. SURPRISE, SURPRISE, FON ALSO HAS A SHOP. THEY HAVE A BRIGHT ORANGE SHOP WITH THREE FULL TIME EMPLOYEES SELLING WIFI TO THE GAYS LIKE THEY ARE SELLING TIMESHARES TO MEXICO OR WINTER VACATIONS FOR NEXT YEAR TO THE SMITHS. THEY PROMISE TO GAY PEOPLE TO TRAVEL AND FIND IT EVERYWHERE . EVERYWHERE…..LIKE IN TOKYO…ETC
I SEE THIS NOW…TRAVELLING GAYS LOOKING FOR WI-FI IN TOKYO’S SHINBUYA, OR GUOZA ….
GAY PEOPLE LIKE IT APPARENTLY BUT THEY DON’T BUY IT AS THEY CAN GET IT FOR FREE. FREE MEANS SUBSIDIZED FULLY FROM FON.COM WITH MONEY FROM SKYPE AND GOOGLE. FON.COM SUBSIDIZES THE WI-FI FON IN THIS COOL DRUG CULTURE NEIGHBORHOOD. THE BIGGEST SHOP HERE ON THIS STRET IS THE FON SHOP AND THE FON WORKERS ARE GOING FROM APT TO APT TO INSTALL THE UNITS AND OFFER CUSTOMER SERVICE FOR THE FONEROS (FON+EROS) IN THIS TOTALLY GAY AND HOOKER RICH NEIGHBORHOOD OF CENTRAL MADRID. THEY RECEIVE ABOUT A HUNDRED INVITES A DAY TO GO AND LOOK AT THE FRIENDLY GUY’S APT TO SEE IF THE FON IS WORKING UNDER THE HOOD…
BRAVE SOUL THAT I AM, I GOT A FON CARD AND WENT AROUND LOOKING FOR THE ELUSIVE WI-FI. I FOUND IT WITH DIFFICULTY. WI-FI WAS VERY SPOTTY, DIFFICULT TO CONNECT AND IMPOSSIBLE TO STAY ON. AND THIS WAS ONLY IN ABOUT 1O BLOCKS OUT OF THE 500 BLOCKS THAT MAKE UP THIS NEIGHBORHOOD CALLED CHUECCA BUT PRONOUNCED TREKKA. A TREK INDEED IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A CHEAP TRICK. MAYBE I SHOULD CALL ONE OF THOSE NICE FON GUYS TO HELP ME FIND IT AND CHECK UNDER THE HOOD WITH ME.
ALL THIS AFTER MV HAD ASSURED ME THIS WAS A 100% COVERED FON NEIGHBORHOOD WITH A WONDERFUL GAY COMMUNITY THAT LOVED TO TRAVEL AND BE WIRELESS.
MARTIN MY FRIEND , THEY ARE GAYS NOT STUPID…MAYBE THEY NEED ASSISTANCE HOOKING UP BUT THIS IS TOO MUCH. TALK ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE WILL DO WHEN THEY HAVE A LOT OF MONEY TO BURN.
ANOTHER BRILLIANT OBSERVATION IN TREKKA, IS THAT EVERYONE LIKES ALL THINGS AMERICAN, MACDONALD’S TO MUSIC AND PROSTITUTES. SPANISH OUTSOURCE THEIR PROSTITUTION TO THEIR COLONIAL PEOPLE. BRAZILIAN, ARGENTINIAN, COLUMBIAN, MEXICAN AND BEAUTIFUL VENEZUELAN GIRLS LINE THE STREETS HANGING AND SELLING SOME SKIN FOR HALF THE PRICE OF THEIR SPANISH CATHOLIC COUNTERPARTS. GUESS WHICH ONES ARE THE MOST BEAUTIFUL AND WHICH ONES GET THE MOST BUSINESS? 25 EURO WILL GET YOU A GOOD AMERICAN PIECE OF ASS. 50 EURO WILL GET YOU A PAELLA FED ,CATHOLIC CONFESSED FAT BOTTOM PRUDISH SPANISH GIRL…. AMERICA RULES.
THE VAGARIES OF COLONIAL EMPIRES AS OBSERVED checking up on FON.com Wi-fi company IN TREKKA. OR AS THE GAYS SAY IT CHUECCA. CHUECCA VACA CHICKOS.
ASTA LA HUEGA
HASTA LA REVOLUCION SIEMPE
ANOTHER PLACE ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER DOLLAR, ANOTHER COMPANY MAYBE.
THE END OF CHUECCA WI-FI

Tags: CHINA, CHUECCA, Colonialism, COLONIES, Conquistadors, DAVOS, exports, FON.COM, HOOKERS, Latin America, MADRID, Martin Varsevsky, MICROSOFT, MV, Spain, Spanish Empire, TELEFONICA, WEF, WI-FI, wifi, YAHOO
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CHEERS for 3G to 3C, Great people, Great CEOs, Great Companies for Community, Communication & Convergence

February 17, 2008 by panokroko

CHEERS for public 3Gs to 3Cs blog;

Great people, Great CEOs, Great Companies, CXOs for Community, Communication & Convergence blog. A refreshing breath of fresh air. A bit of reality, transparency and future prophesy for our Communication business models for the Bottom of the Pyramid.

Counsel to the Modern Princes, leaders of the Corporations that shape our future more than any nation leader might believe to do.

Pay homage to those of You following my musings for the last ten years. Now on to the next ten years. What do you think?

Tags: 3C, 3G, CEO, CHEERS, Communication, Community, Convergence, CXO, CXOs, great mobile companies, Great wireless companies
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Hello CEOs, princes of Communications

ngodirect — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 18:14:08 +0000